Nightly rate versus revenue: why the priciest markets are rarely the best-earning
Across 220 metros with a served revenue figure, the rank correlation between median nightly rate and median annual revenue is 0.83. Only 6 of the fifteen highest-rate markets are among the fifteen highest-earning.
The nightly rate is the number every listing shows and every buyer anchors on. It is also the number that says least about what a property earns, because the year is 365 nights and the rate only applies to the ones that sell. This page puts the two side by side for every metro where we serve a revenue figure.
What is being compared
For each metro: the median nightly rate across entire homes, which is measured directly from the listings; the median annual revenue across the listings that carry a revenue estimate, which for most metros is the measured rate combined with a modeled occupancy band and is labelled as such on the place page; and the sample behind the revenue figure. Metros are included only where at least eight listings carry an estimate, the revenue reconciles with rate and occupancy, and the metro has at least 300 entire homes. That leaves 220.
The result
The rank correlation between rate and revenue across the 220 metros is 0.83. Positive, as it must be, since revenue contains the rate. But the top of the two lists barely overlaps: 6 of the fifteen highest-rate metros are among the fifteen highest-earning.
The fifteen highest nightly rates
| Market | Nightly rate, median | Annual revenue, median | Occupancy, median | Listings with a revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salinas, CA | $663 | $77,929 | 37% | 254 |
| Barnstable Town, MA | $590 | $84,181 | 40% | 304 |
| Gardnerville Ranchos, NV-CA | $554 | $78,231 | 40% | 729 |
| Napa, CA | $533 | $77,583 | 40% | 279 |
| Whitewater-Elkhorn, WI | $531 | $50,946 | 29% | 221 |
| Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA | $501 | $86,222 | 51% | 678 |
| Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA | $499 | $67,814 | 37% | 472 |
| Oxford, MS | $475 | $37,644 | 42% | 15 |
| Ocean Pines, MD | $475 | $52,667 | 35% | 80 |
| Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA | $466 | $61,201 | 38% | 563 |
| Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL | $463 | $46,374 | 36% | 884 |
| Seaford, DE | $459 | $44,849 | 35% | 170 |
| Kill Devil Hills, NC | $455 | $48,759 | 34% | 78 |
| Truckee-Grass Valley, CA | $448 | $36,698 | 41% | 252 |
| State College, PA | $448 | $55,920 | 35% | 412 |
The fifteen highest annual revenues
| Market | Nightly rate, median | Annual revenue, median | Occupancy, median | Listings with a revenue estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA | $501 | $86,222 | 51% | 678 |
| Barnstable Town, MA | $590 | $84,181 | 40% | 304 |
| San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA | $348 | $79,629 | 63% | 5,983 |
| Kapaa, HI | $434 | $79,304 | 55% | 2,007 |
| Gardnerville Ranchos, NV-CA | $554 | $78,231 | 40% | 729 |
| Salinas, CA | $663 | $77,929 | 37% | 254 |
| Napa, CA | $533 | $77,583 | 40% | 279 |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | $366 | $75,121 | 58% | 9,674 |
| Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | $372 | $74,060 | 53% | 2,810 |
| Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA | $403 | $73,648 | 50% | 457 |
| Portland-South Portland, ME | $395 | $71,729 | 47% | 476 |
| Kalispell, MT | $413 | $69,704 | 43% | 202 |
| Kahului-Wailuku, HI | $392 | $69,509 | 50% | 4,082 |
| Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | $328 | $69,454 | 51% | 6,021 |
| Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA | $499 | $67,814 | 37% | 472 |
Why they diverge
A high rate in a market with thin occupancy is a luxury home that sits empty most of the year. The rate is real, the revenue is small, and the listings that carry the market's median rate are not the listings that carry its median revenue. The markets that top the revenue list are the ones where a good rate meets a full calendar: the ski towns and the Gulf coast in season, and the large-home markets where a six-bedroom sells a week at a time.
For a buyer, the practical rule is to underwrite from the revenue band and treat the rate as a sanity check, never the other way round. The place page for each market shows both, with the sample and the label, and the Earning chapter shows where the median sits in the middle half.
The honest caveat
The revenue figure for most of these metros leans on a modeled occupancy, and the model's out-of-sample error is 21.8%. That is why the page shows a band, not a point, and why the ranking above should be read as tiers rather than positions. Where our calendar readings produce a measured occupancy, the label changes to measured and the band narrows. That coverage is growing with each reading cycle.